Energy as Coercion, The Strategy of Bargaining

Starkweather, Ciera

Undergraduate Honors Thesis

Energy as Coercion, The Strategy of Bargaining Public Deposited

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Citeable URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/concern/undergraduate_honors_theses/vq27zp90m

Abstract

The pursuit of energy security by states has become incredibly important as the international world continues to globalize. Part of this push for increased energy security has come from an increased threat of energy coercion from states that supply a large amount of another state’s resources. This dependance is dangerous and not only puts an actor’s energy security at risk, but also its national security. In this thesis I seek to uncover how strategic culture can further clarify the outcome of coercive scenarios involving energy. If states’ maintain an understanding of target or sender state’s strategic culture, potential responses to coercive threats can be better addressed or circumvented all together.

This thesis analyzes the influence that strategic culture has on the success or failure in coercive bargaining scenarios involving energy. Theorized in this thesis is the idea that locus of control within a state, which influences a state’s strategic culture, can determine whether a coercion scenario fails or succeeds. Conclusions were drawn from an interactive case study of three different instances of coercive bargaining with energy. These scenarios involved a sender and target state where the sender state was attempting to influence the target state with their energy access. The specific scenarios analyzed were the U.S. Japan oil embargo in 1941, the OPEC U.S. oil embargo in 1973, and the Russia Ukraine gas shut offs from 2004-2009. The evidence found in the case studies supported my theory that strategic culture influences how states respond to coercive bargaining. All else holding equal, an internal locus of control makes a target state unlikely to capitulate in a scenario involving energy, and external locus of control makes a target state more likely to capitulate in a coercive scenario involving energy.

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