Meteorological Drivers of Arctic Rain-on-Snow Events and How Climate Change May Influence Associated Risks

Voveris, Jessica Jane

Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation

Meteorological Drivers of Arctic Rain-on-Snow Events and How Climate Change May Influence Associated Risks Public Deposited

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Citations

Citeable URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/2n49t3012

Abstract

Much of what is known and recognized about the Arctic climate and weather patterns is dynamically changing due to anthropogenic warming, which may lead to both altered occurrences and strengthening of extreme events. Rain-on-snow or ROS events continue to produce extreme event criteria and impacts, especially when they occur over Arctic regions. These events generate hazards ranging from flooding to icing concerns for the transportation sector. Ecologists have studied how ROS events affect hooved animal species’ ability to forage for their natural food sources – animals that are heavily relied upon by Indigenous Peoples. Ice growth resulting from ROS blocks access to food sources, leading to massive starvation events.This research seeks to understand much of the meteorological setup of Arctic ROS events by focusing on five case studies of major events that led to serious impacts on the affected areas. From a synoptic scale standpoint, blocking patterns played leading roles in the initiation of ROS conditions over an area, with atmospheric rivers also lending to both direct and indirect effects in each ROS case. Other mesoscale features – like cyclone-induced low-level jets and resultant “warm noses” of higher air temperatures and moisture transport – represented other key features of ROS initiation. This study concludes by postulating how climate change may alter the severity and frequency of Arctic ROS events, drawing on this improved knowledge of weather patterns leading to ROS conditions.

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