The expansion of school “choice” (i.e., voucher) programs, which subsidize private school tuition with taxpayer funds, has sparked debate over their fiscal impact. An EdChoice report claims these subsidies save taxpayers money since per-pupil voucher costs are typically lower than public school spending. However, its estimate of how many students switch due to vouchers—rather than using them for a private education they’d pursue anyway—is invalid. The report also ignores that public schools serve more high-need students, inflating costs. Flawed methodology further underestimates voucher program costs, making the report’s weak evidence, poor theories, and slapdash methods useless to policymakers.