Undergraduate Honors Theses

Thesis Defended

Spring 2011

Document Type

Thesis

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Prof. Carlos Martins-Filho

Abstract

The catastrophic failures of risk management systems in 2008 bring to the forefront the need for accurate and exible estimators of market risk. Despite advances in the theory and practice of evaluating risk, existing measures are notoriously poor predictors of loss in high-quantile events. To extend the research concerned with modeling extreme value events, we utilize extreme value theory (EVT) to propose a multivariate estimation procedure for value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) for conditional distributions of a time series of returns on a nancial asset. Our approach extends the local linear estimator of conditional mean and volatility used in the conditional heteroskedastic autoregressive nonlinear (CHARN) model proposed by Martins-Filho and Yao (2006) by incorporating an exogenous time series resembling returns on the S&P 500 from January 1950 through September 2011. In combination with EVT, this model estimates the quantiles of the conditional distribution and subsequently the one-day forecasted VaR and ES. We examine the nite sample properties of our method and contrast them with the popular Gaussian GARCH estimator in an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The method we propose generally outperforms the Gaussian GARCH estimator, particularly in samples greater than 1000. Our results provide evidence of the e ect of the curse of dimensionality, which arises because we include a second regressor.

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