Date of Award

Spring 1-1-2012

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

First Advisor

Amy Javernick-Will

Second Advisor

Keith Molenaar

Third Advisor

Matthew Hallowell

Abstract

Although probabilistic risk analysis methods, a component of project risk management, have been regularly available to designer and construction practitioners since the early 1990s, their use is not pervasive in the construction industry today. Using a multi-method analysis, including in-depth interviews and survey questionnaires, this research identified the benefits and barriers of employing probabilistic risk analysis with a focus on companies in the Construction Industry Institute (CII) and the Project Management Institute (PMI). The research identified benefits that include the ability to better manage project cost and schedule, the ability to better manage risks, the ability to make risks explicit, increased confidence in project decision making, and increased internal collaboration and discussion among the project team and organization. The research also uncovered several barriers that organizations face when implementing probabilistic risk analysis. These barriers include a lack of organizational support, a lack of policy and procedures, difficulty interpreting results, and a lack of technical expertise.

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