Date of Award

Spring 12-5-2014

Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

First Advisor

Keith A. Porter

Second Advisor

Abbie B. Liel

Third Advisor

Ross B. Corotis


The main aim of this thesis is to find a relationship between collapse probability and collapse risk of new buildings. In this study, collapse probability is defined as the probability that a building will collapse when subjected to MCER shaking level ground motion at a location. Collapse risk is defined as the building collapse frequency over a period tau years due to shaking of any level at a location. FEMA P-695 fragility functions are used in this study to represent new buildings. Only reinforced concrete moment frame buildings with a period greater than 0.5s are considered for this. 23 high hazard locations and 21 medium hazard locations are selected across the United States to maintain uniformity in the comparison of collapse probability and collapse risk. Using the median collapse capacity and logarithmic standard deviation of collapse capacity of the building models taken from FEMA P-695, the collapse probabilities are calculated. A score is then calculated using a method similar to the one in FEMA 154. The overall annual risk to each building at each of the locations is calculated using a risk integral. Risk score is then calculated for a period of tau years. Scoring system allows us to uniformly compare the collapse probability and collapse risk and form a relationship between the two. Later, a sensitivity study is performed to check for variables that strongly influence this relationship.