Undergraduate Honors Thesis


Twenty First Century Economic Slowdown and Its Impact on CO₂ Emissions in the United States Público Deposited

  • There is an emerging consensus among the academic community that United States economic growth will slow over the next century. However, there is an uncertainty regarding how quickly or by how much growth will slow. This project analyzes the effects of possible slowdowns in GDP per-capita growth on CO₂ emissions. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) forecast slowdowns in economic growth based on assumptions made by the various SSP narratives. This project compares SSP growth forecasts with one of the more pessimistic projections offered by Robert Gordon. Gordon predicts that GDP per-capita growth will slow to the rate of 0.2% per-year (lower than any of the SSPs forecast). The methodology of this thesis creates modified SSPs based on Gordon’s growth projections to analyze the impact of slowing economic growth on CO₂ emissions. The result of this analysis suggests that slower growth in the Middle of the Road scenario (SSP2) will lead to a reduction of carbon emissions by half as much in 2100 as the reduction from shifting to the sustainability scenario (SSP1). The implication of Gordon’s economic projections could have a sizable impact on emission reduction, one comparable to significant changes to the energy sector.
Date Awarded
  • 2019-01-01
Academic Affiliation
Committee Member
Granting Institution
Última modificación
  • 2020-01-06
Resource Type
Declaración de derechos