Expectations of Government: Analyzing the Brexit Vote

Undergraduate Honors Thesis

Citations

Citeable URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/concern/undergraduate_honors_theses/mp48sf33q

Abstract

The goal of the paper is to identify the causes of the leave vote in the Brexit referendum. Three key factors are identified in the initial hypothesis: alienation, immigration, and integration. Secondly, the paper discusses how philosophy can support the causes of the leave vote. Social contract theory and virtue ethics are explored, along with their relationship to the leave vote. A logistic regression model was run on binary dependent variables using data collected by the British Election Study. There are four total models, two using pre-election data and two using post-election data. In each dataset, one model controls for the constituency, while the other focuses on regions. Northern Ireland was not included in the study. The results indicate that alienation is a strong predictor of supporting the leave vote. In model 1, when all other variables were controlled, alienation attributed to an 80.1% probability of supporting leaving, compared to a 43.4% probability when alienation was not included. Immigration is found to be a second factor, but integration was not depicted using the available data. All citizens need to feel included in the government. Moments of disenfranchisement can have lasting effects on motivation to participate in government and advocate for widespread change. Many factors led to the United Kingdom leaving the European Union, but the largest contributing factor was alienation.

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