Undergraduate Honors Thesis
Changing Fire Weather in Colorado: A Contrast Between Observational Data and Reanalysis Data Public Deposited
- Abstract
Recent wildfires in Colorado raise the question of whether rising global temperatures have caused
an increase in fire weather in Colorado. We use two datasets to address the question: “How has the
occurrence of fire weather changed in Colorado?” Using 21 years of observed weather conditions
from a meteorological tower at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and 83 years
of ERA5 reanalysis data, we assess changing trends in Colorado fire weather. The observational
data is limited in temporal extent, but it captures the exact real-world conditions at its location in
complex terrain. The reanalysis data is available for an extended period of time and for the entire
state, but its data is of relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolution and likely fails to capture
extremes. To quantify fire risk, we calculate the hot-dry-windy index (HDWI) which relies on wind
speed and vapor pressure deficit. No statistically significant trend in the Hot-Dry-Windy index
(HDWI) appears in the observational dataset. However, according to the reanalysis data, strong
increasing trends in HDWI values emerge across all of Colorado. This apparent conflict between
observational and reanalysis data suggests that reanalysis data may not be representative and more
long-term observational datasets are required to assess fire risk.
- Creator
- Date Awarded
- 2023-10-10
- Academic Affiliation
- Advisor
- Committee Member
- Granting Institution
- Subject
- Last Modified
- 2023-11-04
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Thumbnail | Title | Date Uploaded | Visibility | Actions |
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Silver-Max_final_copy.pdf | 2023-11-04 | Public | Download |