Average Annualized Loss Methodology for Canada’s National Risk Profile

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Citeable URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/concern/reports/g732db52f

Abstract

Public Safety Canada aims to create disaster planning scenarios for its National Risk Profile, with each scenario designed to reflect an order-of-magnitude multiple of the average annualized loss (AAL) for a particular peril, for example, 1 times AAL or 10 times AAL. The present work proposes a standard methodology to calculate AAL for winter storms and severe convective summer storms. The methodology starts with either a commercial insured-loss database (CatIQ) or with the losses reported in the Canadian Disaster Database.

Each has advantages and disadvantages. CatIQ data represents a primary source, reporting actual losses paid, and offers more data in detail; however, data is limited to insured property losses, and the database requires a license to access and has copyright restrictions. The Canadian Disaster Database is a public, but secondary, source. It, too, is limited to a few loss categories. We extrapolate from both sources using a variety of proxies; for example, we estimate total societal property loss by dividing insured loss by the fraction of properties that have insurance. The results sometimes disagree. When they do, we generally recommend using the results based on CatIQ data, mostly because it is a primary source.

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