Article

Abstract

• We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 6  km 2 ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.

Creator

• Notz, Dirk
• SIMIP Community
• Jahn, Alexandra

Academic Affiliation

• Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC)
• INSTAAR

Journal Title

• Geophysical Research Letters

Journal Issue/Number

• 10

Journal Volume

• 47

Last Modified

• 2022-01-25

Resource Type

• Article

Rights Statement

• In Copyright

DOI

•  https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749

ISSN

• 1944-8007

Language

• English [eng]

Relationships

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