Article

Trimming the UCERF3-TD Logic Tree: Model Order Reduction for an Earthquake Rupture Forecast Considering Loss Exceedance, with Supplemental Material

Public Deposited

Downloadable Content

Download PDF
https://scholar.colorado.edu/concern/articles/47429b52p
Abstract
  • The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3-Time Dependent depicts California’s seismic faults and their activity. Its logic tree has 5,760 leaves. Considering 30 more model combinations related to ground motion produces 172,800 distinct models representing so-called epistemic uncertainties. To calculate risk to a portfolio of buildings, one also considers millions of earthquakes and spatially correlated ground-motion variability. We offer a tree-trimming technique that retains the probability distribution of portfolio loss. We applied it to a California statewide building portfolio and various levels of nonexceedance probability between 1 in 100 and 1 in 2,500. We trimmed the logic tree from 172,800 leaves to as few as 15. The result: a supercomputer that would otherwise run 24 hours to estimate the distribution of a 1-in-250-year loss can calculate it in moments with the reduced-order model. Others can use the reduced-order model to calculate risk to different California portfolios, and scientists can prioritize study to reduce the remaining epistemic uncertainty.

Creator
Academic Affiliation
Last Modified
  • 2024-11-05
Resource Type
Rights Statement
Language

Relations

Items