Dealing with Uncertainty: Selecting a Risk-Analysis Tool on the Basis of Project Characteristics and Phases

Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation

Citations

Citeable URL: https://scholar.colorado.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/tb09j5953

Abstract

Risk and uncertainty are inherent components of projects and it is even truer in the construction industry which faces a higher exposure due to an always changing environment. To deal with this problem researchers and engineers came up with different methods to manage these risk factors in an iterative loop process called risk management. Even though each of the methods has its own intrinsic characteristics leading to both advantages and constraints, there is a void in the literature to select the most appropriate tool to manage risk on a project based upon its characteristics and the phase. From a survey sent out to construction companies, the current investigation establishes some trends on the usefulness of eight of the most used risk-analysis techniques subjected to the four project characteristics having the greatest impact on project performance (complexity, cost, schedule, scope) and the stage of the project development (broken down into five phases). Results are presented in a list format going, method by method, into the strengths, weaknesses, and best implementation situations. A limitation of this research is that this format is not user friendly for decision makers and building a model entering characteristics and phases as inputs and providing the most suitable risk technique as an output would be an interesting track to explore in future research.

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